Why We're Typically Reluctant To Share This Sort of Stuff - But Will Now

We're typically reluctant to share stuff that's directly related to our specific work. But we'll do that now. And we'll explain why we're doing so.

So what's the stuff we're typically reluctant to share? It's what's got us on our toes in the daily labor that springs from the financial services business we run.

Normally, we screen out the vast majority of what comes to our attention. Why?

First of all, we're careful not to give financial advice. It's something that's both prudent, as well as something that our compliance regimen mostly forbids. So be aware that what we're going to share is MOST DEFINITELY NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Got it? OK.

Second, it's summer, and we're at work. Does summer bring some easing up of the usual work jam? For some of us it will. For others, not so much. Whatever the situation in the workplace, most of us have some summer vacation time. So even if the work jam continues through what should be at least a little lighter time, there's that break, that respite from the usual. It helps, doesn't it?

So we don't want to mess with what for many of us is a more steady, calm time of year.

Third, what we'll share is what we're preparing for - for both ourselves and our clients. And we do so with the caveat that the worst, or even the second worst, may not come to pass in the timeline we think it might. (That's always the case. In one sense, timing is everything; in another, timing is notoriously tricky.)

So while we're reluctant to look into the future with a crystal ball, and with the appropriate caveat to that effect on the table, give us some slack as we boldly state that a storm is brewing. And we would all do well to prepare and brace ourselves. 

If this reminds you of our recent "Stability Project," it means you've been reading our posts over the last couple of years, beginning with the awful Mess that descended on us during the whole Covid thing. Some of what disrupted our businesses and our lives was unique to the government imposed shut-downs and mandates. But much was the outgrowth and acceleration of trends already in place before all that.

Now we've mostly gotten past all the shut-downs, vaccine mandates, masks, etc. The thing is, the trends pretty much remain. And the "storm" that may be brewing will spring from some or many of these trends intensifying - so much so that our business and personal lives could be shaken in a manner that recalls the dark days of the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis. Recalls, or may even surpasses that time (which most folks have likely forgotten already!).

Let's be specific. Here's what may happen before the year ends:

- A Stock Market Crash, or severe decline. Could be like 2008 where stocks fell in a few short months. Or could be like 2000-2001-2002 where the Dot Com Bubble imploded and most stocks declined for three straight years. Not great for our 401ks or retirement plans.

- A Credit Crisis. Credit is already tightening, which means the liquidity that greases the gears of the financial markets and our economy is drying up. It's already harder or impossible for certain businesses to get financing or to re-finance outstanding loans. Bankruptcies are up. 

- A Banking Crisis: We've all been assured by the government and Wall Street that the seemingly sudden collapse of some of our largest U.S. banks, and the Swiss giant Credit Suisse were some sort of anomaly that's behind us. Don't count on it. Certain businesses, like commercial real estate, relay on regional banks for their financing. And regional banks are the most at risk. Hence, they have already stopped making or refinancing loans to existing customers, never mind new ones.

- An Economic Recession: Sure, it could be Recession Lite. Or it could be something much worse. We have no way of knowing, although the argument can be made that it's already begun. And the further argument could be made (logically we might add) that the policies of the Fed and the government that artificially held interest rates at zero (or below) since 2008 created a bubble of proportions that will implode with vicious intensity. We'll see.

If some or all of that hits us (or we should really say when) the social disruptions that rocked our country after George Floyd's death (may he rest in peace), may explode again, possibly worse than last time.

We'll stop there. Just remember that if these don't manifest this fall, they will soon enough. (There, we hedge a bit, but ultimately just went out on a limb.)

With all this in mind, considering the impact it will have on both our personal and work lives, we'll launch into a kind of mini stability project. As opposed to a comprehensive review of the Rule of Saint Benedict as our reference point, we'll focus on a small section our beloved wise saint refers to as "The Tools of Good Works." We've posted on these in the past. They'll be a strong tonic for us again.

We'll begin next time...