We're All Concerned About What's Going On. But What About the Future?

We've been poking around the mess that surrounds us now in our "C-Virus" world. Recently, it's been all about finding an edge to offset the distractions caused by the many and varying challenges that effect each of us in different ways. And last time I shared some exchanges I've had with clients.

No surprise, but concern with what's going on seems to be shared by just about everyone. As we saw last time, my own experience at work has been that, despite political differences, people share a deep level of concern about the economy and our society. Summing that up quickly: The economy remains in the dumps. Our society seems to be unraveling. (We'll skip over the fact that it's been unraveling for a long time. For now let's stick with the latest social unrest that's got folks worried.)

We might say we're all on a kind of level playing field when it comes to the present. Yes, the divide between us has deepened. Left and right, liberal and conservative, have drifted about as far apart as I've ever experienced - at least since the infamous 1960s. But if you can share a basic level of respect and regard for the person, as I do at work with colleagues and clients, you find a common ground of deep concern. Things are off track. There's no clear path to getting things squared away for the foreseeable future. So what about that future?

Look, I don't have any special or brilliant insights here. I'm mostly looking at the same milky white fog in my crystal ball that you're likely seeing in yours. All I can to is share a few thoughts based on my past experience and some degree of knowledge I've picked up from my professional work and intellectual curiosity. Given the current massive unemployment, let's start with that.

While I'm still working, millions aren't. But our current level of unemployment simply doesn't match past periods of job loss. This one was government imposed. And if you're thinking that as government slowly lifts restrictions on businesses, people who've lost their jobs should be able to return to work, think again.

The first wave of job loss appears to have been concentrated in certain service sectors, most heavily in restaurants, brick and mortar retail stores, and a whole swath of work based on manual labor. While local governments in much of the country have lifted at least some restrictions on the restaurant business, things are nowhere near normal. Millions of restaurant workers remain jobless. Where we live and work, it's estimated that over 50% of restaurants that were closed will never reopen. Okay, so some will relocate and start up again. But here's a question: Have you been going out to eat as much as you once did, if at all? Is that going to change in the near future?

Retail stores were already closing by the thousands before the C-Virus lock-downs. That trend was blamed on online shopping, especially Amazon. But a good argument can be made that retail sales in general were beginning to suffer because of a developing economic slowdown. The lock-downs sort of masked all that. Nevertheless, the result has been a wave of bankruptcies that may find many more store closings, with a resulting permanent elimination of jobs.

Restaurants and retail stores may be biggest and best-known victims of the lock-downs, but let's not forget airlines, hotels - the entire travel and tourist industry. In Manhattan, where I spent some of my time at work before the lockdown, it's estimated that maybe 10% of office space is being used post-lock-down. And the tourists that clogged the streets in recent decades are gone. Midtown isn't quite the ghost town it was during the lock-down, but it's still close to it. And you don't even hear about all the retail stores on Fifth Avenue and Madison Avenue - prime shopping venues - that were smashed and looted during the recent riots.

We could go on, but I think you get the point.

Sure, lot's of the workers who don't trudge into the city have been working from home. But so many of the folks who provided various products and services to those workers, and to the tourists who spent hundreds of millions of dollars don't work from home. They're just home, with nowhere to work.

And as for the work-from-homers, we shouldn't be surprised to see a wave of new lay-offs coming. These may include so-called "white collar" workers who've been able to connect via laptop and internet and do whatever it is they do. But as many businesses look at their dwindling bottom lines, will all those folks need to be pounding their laptop keys or attending all those Zoom meetings? We suspect not. And so there very well may be a new round of job losses.

As it is, statistics show that over 30% of folks aren't making mortgage payments. Will that number increase now if currently employed white collar folks get the axe?

The job losses to date reflect the lock-downs that began in March. In May, there was a "surprising" gain of 2.5 million jobs as re-openings began. With that, talk of a "V" recovery proliferated. That talk has been muted lately. There's just not been strong follow through to those initial numbers. And if we're in for a new wave of lay-offs, we could go negative again. Add to this the fact that I've read workers who've been categorized as "furloughed" aren't counted among the unemployed. I think we've got a lot more people out there without work than even the original shocking numbers indicated.

As the government considers extending the "extra" unemployment benefits instituted in March, you have to wonder how they can not do this. And unless the future brings a big pick-up in business activity, you have to wonder how those benefits can ever be rescinded as long as the economy limps along.

So from that perspective, the future doesn't look too rosy. We'll expand on this next time.

For now, despite the apparent seriousness of our current circumstances, let's not forget to pray, to keep ourselves close to God, each in our own situations, each according to our special needs. We pray for ourselves and we pray for others. Those of us who continue to work, pray for those who can't. All of us, pray for some sign of light to penetrate that milky white fog in each of our crystal balls. We pray to Father, Son, and Holy Ghost. We pray to Our Lady, and the angels and saints.

Here's a special prayer to Our Lady by St. Francis de Sales we can apply to our own special need or needs:

"Say not, merciful Virgin, that you cannot help me; for your beloved Son has given you all power in heaven and on earth. Say not that you ought not to assist me, for you are the mother of ll the poor children of Adam, and mine in particular. Since then, merciful Virgin, you are my mother and your are all-powerful, what excuse can you offer if you do not lend your assistance? See, my mother, see you are obliged to grant me what I ask, and to my entreaties."

How boldly our great saint addresses Our Blessed Mother. I suspect it's boldness springing from deep faith and great love. May we share that faith and love as we face an uncertain future.