Can We Get Through the Rest of This Year Intact? - Part 2

As we saw last time, much of what's happening now in our C-Virus mess serves to mask what's really brewing under the surface. While bankruptcies have increased - including those of some large, well-known companies - the businesses themselves haven't closed. Massive government assistance to airlines to make up for the lack or customers has kept these firms - and their employees - afloat; but big layoffs are planned for the fall. 30% + or home owners have stopped paying their mortgages, but banks are constrained from foreclosing - for now. The 30 million (or more) unemployed have been receiving out-sized benefits from the government, which have recently been renewed. If the economy doesn't pick up in a big way in a hurry (and does anyone believe it will?) how long will the government keep up that assistance?

On the education front, student loan payments have been suspended for many. For current students, enrollments at colleges and universities are down. And some of these have additionally lowered tuition in situations where classes are only offered remotely. Are these institutions so well financed with generous endowments that they can survive this fall in revenue? For some, yes. For many others, no.

Rather than list more examples - and there are many - let's just get to the key point here: When it comes to getting through the rest of the year intact, we need to be hyper-vigilant. Two areas in particular - both of which we've talked about recently - should catch and keep our attention.

Despite the "re-opening" of the economy, we have no evidence that any significant recovery is in the works. For a while, some economists and Wall Street moguls trumpeted a quick ("V-shaped") recovery. If anyone's thinking that, it's a whisper now. As we pointed out last time, the programs instituted by the Fed (aka "Stimulus" packages) and the government assistance programs like the recent Care Act serve merely to maintain. The term "stimulus" is misleading. With a downdraft so sudden and severe caused by government-imposed lock-downs, these programs really function as massive flotation devices. Without them, the ship would sink. That's not stimulus.

To continue with the analogy, we have to wonder how long it will take to: a) repair the ship; b) fire up its engines and get it sailing under its own power. The key here is the "how long." In the short-term, we have to assume repairs, such as they are, will continue for months. The real question will be whether they will take years. And, if so, that only takes us to a point where we can have the engineer fire up those engines again.

To be hyper-vigilant means more than just watching numbers reported by the media and the government (GDP, Unempoyment, etc.) These can be misleading. Rather than spend inordinate time watching the news, reading the analysis, and trying to sort through it all to get a "clear" picture of what's happening, put time into your own financial situation. Watch your expenses like a hawk. Do all you can to save money and keep it in a safe place in case you need it in the near future. Or perhaps you'll be in a position to help someone you know well who has lost their job and has real immediate needs. None of us can right the economy, none of us can save the world by ourselves. All of us can, however, help those nearest and dearest to us if they have legitimate needs.

Our hyper-vigilance should also extend to our surroundings. I'm referring to the social unrest we've all witnessed, as well as the increase in crime that some cities (like my own) now experience. Just think: If economic conditions remain poor, even deteriorate, it's a safe bet that social unrest and crime will pick up. 

I read an unfortunate article recently (and from a relatively intelligent source) that explained that people's perceptions of increase in crime and reality often don't match. The article looks back in time. That all may be true. But back in time isn't now. And our own local situation clearly shows that crime is up - in some categories up a lot. It's not just a perception; it's reality. If that's true for you, you need to change your habits and perhaps take defensive measures.

The first change would be increased situational awareness. Having grown up in a city, this isn't new to me. But even so, I can tell you I'm curtailing my forays into certain parts of our city and being ultra-cautious when I do get about. Even in our immediate neighborhood, traditionally the safest precinct in the city, I'm not letting down my guard.

To be sure, none of this puts me on edge or causes inordinate worry or anxiety (unless I'm thinking of others, particularly loved ones!). Being vigilant brings with it a level of - and I think this is the right word - peace. Not that you'll never be the victim of a crime; but your chances will be reduced by being watchful and prudently planning your movements.

But while some level of peace can be gained by our practical efforts, real peace, as we know, comes only God. So while I'm practicing what I'm preaching here, my real efforts go into building and strengthening my Interior Life. Next time we'll see why that's got to be our #1 priority not only as a general practice, but particularly in our short-term efforts to get through the rest of the year intact.