Can We Get Through the Rest of This Year Intact?

Last week we tried to see through the surrounding fog generated by our C-Virus world. While recognizing that the present mess continues, we wondered what the future might hold. Prayerfully considering what the available evidence might indicate, the picture wasn't rosy. 

When things aren't looking so good, it's time to get defensive. In the stock market, for example, a good defensive posture will protect you somewhat from a vicious downturn. The recent tropical storm we had here in the Northeast called for battening down the hatches as the wind whipped into a somewhat unexpected frenzy. If you took precautions, you did better than those who brushed it off.

In our spiritual lives, we'd be fools not to be "defensive" in this sense: Recognizing our sinfulness, we develop the habit of instantly seeking forgiveness from God the moment we become aware of any sin. (For more on this, check Sunday posts.)

With that in mind, it might be good to remind ourselves that a) Except for God, no one knows for sure what the future holds; b) the farther out we look, the less clear the picture. Rose-colored glasses might not be the best way to look over the horizon; but, we can and should place our hope in the hands of a loving Father.

Shorter-term, however, some facts have emerged that might help us anticipate what to expect in the coming weeks and months, if not years. And those facts do, it would seem, call for getting defensive.

First, the "re-opening" continues, but not all that smoothly. Various businesses that have opened have, in some places, been forced to close again. Other businesses remain shuttered. These simply cannot make enough money to pay their rent, payroll, expenses, etc. The customers haven't come in sufficient numbers. These are typically brick and mortar concerns. The obvious examples: retail shops, restaurants. Many will never open again. But let's not forget their landlords. They're not receiving rents. What happens to them?

On the other hand it's not all bad. I just learned that a favorite Asian restaurant reopened, and after a rocky start, business is booming. Interestingly, they only have 3 tables inside to enforce social distancing. (A friend of the owner died from the virus, so he's extremely cautious.) But his take-out business, always robust, has increased to a point where the kitchen can barely keep up with the orders. (The food is that good!) The owner, a smart guy, has set up a smooth system where the customers drive up at an estimated time for pick-up and one of the guys who used to park cars grabs the order and delivers it to the car. (Notice how this guy has managed to keep people employed who were loyal employees before the C-Virus mess began.)

I suspect we'll find other examples of owners of small businesses who have figured out how to re-fit their business model to cope with the current environment.

Of course we know obvious examples of businesses not only plowing through this mess, but thriving because of it: Amazon and many of the tech giants come to mind.

But the fact is, the small businesses - and many big ones - that rely on brick and mortar may simply close down - forever. What will the landscape look like when all this begins to sink in? (Yes, it's reasonable to assume that over time, astute entrepreneurs will find opportunity in this. But I wouldn't count on it happening overnight. Remember, we're talking short-term here.)

What's important to grasp here is this: Our economy is complex. Everything touches, connects, and effects everything else. The example of the brick and mortar businesses and their landlords can serve as a simple example. It's bad enough the businesses have closed, or can't afford the rent. Will the landlords find other tenants - or at least find them in a reasonable time frame? If not, what do they do? They have taxes to pay, maintenance expenses. Maybe some of their tenants remain and therefore require full the services the building provides.

Here's a clear example of what a landlord may be facing: I've been told that a building in Manhattan with which I'm familiar has maybe 10% of its tenants coming in. Many who are not coming in have stopped paying rent. But the building - a big one - can't just shut down electricity, air conditioning, and basic maintenance. (In fact, maintenance may be more costly now with efforts to disinfect because of the virus.) So their expenses continue, perhaps even increase slightly. Their revenue? Take a guess.

We chose these examples and anecdotes to make a point. Our current knowledge of what's going on consists of what appear to be solid facts (Amazon making a killing), and reasonably obvious facts (landlords suffering along with their tenants). But we might also conclude that a lot of what's happening remains unseen, lurking beneath the surface. And it's the unseen that can spring up in a flash and catch us flat-footed. An obvious example: the recent riots. Were any of us, including police departments, really expecting that degree of looting and violence within days of the initial protests over the death of George Floyd?

On the economic front, we may have only seen the tip of the iceberg. Central Bank (the Fed) monetary intervention and government maintenance programs have masked what could be coming. Notice we did not say "stimulus," but rather chose "intervention" and "maintenance." It's arguable that the programs being touted as "stimulus" are nothing of the kind. They are simply filling in large holes in the economy, thus preventing conditions from worsening. That's not stimulus.

We'll get into more detail next time. For now, let's close with two simple suggestions that we Catholic men at work can consider. They're based on my personal experience, for what it's worth.

First, I remind myself daily that all of this is God's Will. I don't really get into analyzing this, just recognizing it. And I do repeat it over and over again to be sure there's no mistaking the point.

Second, I remind myself to trust in God. While we'll talk more next time about what we can do to get through the rest of this year intact, it's really important that we do so within a supernatural framework. We can prepare, but we can't predict the future with any certainty. That alone should drive home the importance of trusting God when all is said and done.