C-Virus World Challenges to the Future of Our Businesses
Our overview last time of how business was doing in our C-Virus World naturally leads us to contemplate what challenges we'll face in the future.
Here's an interesting stat: Before the mess began, a survey of business owners revealed that 65% of U.S. business owners were planning to retire within the next 5 years. 65%! That's a distinct majority.
A certain percent of these were planning to sell their businesses. What's happening now is this: The value they thought their business had before has likely been significantly affected by the economic disaster that started in March. Increased revenue could mean higher valuations. Decreased, the opposite. But what's happened so far can't be assumed to continue into the future. "Uncertainty" will be the operative term here.
Of course, business owners aren't the only ones facing uncertainty. If small businesses are dancing on their toes, what about their employees? Remember that most employees in our country work for small businesses. Some have had their jobs saved by the government's program to help small businesses meet payroll (the "PPP" program). Unfortunately, many businesses who need help have not been able to access those funds. But even those businesses that could access these funds now face the future, where these measures serve only as short-term fixes.
A lot depends on how the economy responds to the ending of draconian lockdowns. Some predict a quick recovery - known as a "V-shaped" recovery. Others are not so sure about this. One thing we all should keep in mind: The economy was already showing signs of wear before anyone heard of COVID. (How quickly we forget!) Common sense tells us that if the economy was already weakening, the sledgehammer lock-down due to COVID would, if anything, add significant bulk to whatever was already weighing on the U.S. (and most of the rest of word's) economy.
While you're free to hope for and root for a V-shaped recovery, it makes a lot of sense to consider two other alternatives. First, imagine a longer, even sluggish recovery. The timing here is open-ended: a year or so? I've heard as much as a decade - or more. Second, imagine things getting worse. Yeah, it's not pleasant. But it's not outside the realm of the possible.
And if you tend to think that the second alternative is remote, or simply don't want to engage in "negative thinking," just remember that a second wave of COVID shouldn't be dismissed. Some already think this likely. Others, even if they don't dismiss the likelihood of some sort of Phase 2 of COVID, assume the government would never, ever shut down the economy again, as it did this past March. Without taking sides here, I wouldn't completely ignore the possibility of a second shut-down. Yeah, it seems impossible now. But if the virus mutates - as such viruses do - to a more virulent form, we may face scenarios where governments will have to react to the sort of situation faced in the Spanish Flu Pandemic of the 1920s. Then the second wave was the really lethal one. And even if we don't have anything approaching the numbers of deaths wrought by the Spanish Flu, what will the government do if illnesses and deaths spike far beyond what we've already faced?
I don't have answers; I am simply asking the question. And I suggest you consider the possibility.
Why bring this up now? Things are loosening up. Despite reports of spikes in COVID cases in some parts of the country and the world, no one's taking these as a threat to everyone. Fair enough. But a significant second wave will threaten everyone.
Thinking a vaccine will save the day? Maybe. But a second wave of COVID would likely commence before any vaccine is available - unless we have either a virtually miraculous discovery or a vaccine is "rushed" through the usual testing phases - not a prospect I'd look forward to.
And let's not forget another possibility: no vaccine. Remember Aids? There was never a vaccine developed for Aids. And, if you remember, Aids was considered a potentially mortal threat to the entire world. So serious was this possibility considered, that Life insurance companies were in the process of changing their mortality assumptions - a radical measure that could only be driven by a sincere belief that deaths from Aids would eventually affect the general population and number in the millions. So what happened that stemmed the threat? A treatment was developed. And it proved effective. But it took some years to develop an effective treatment.
So an echo of our last post: Where is God in all this for you? Are you praying more? Doing all you can to increase in holiness and grow closer to God (both go hand in hand)?
Last time my questions spurred a troubled response - from me. I realized my time with God had not increased as I faced the special challenges our C-Virus world has presented to my family and my business. I'm working on that now. But if the future brings the sorts of uncertainty and potential threats we've just discussed, that should serve as a booster to my current efforts.
What about you? Need more time with God now? Get on it. In light of what could be coming down the pike, get on it now. Develop the discipline (see last week's posts) you need to get God into the daily mix of your life. And then kick that up several notches.
While it's always been the case. the challenges we're facing and those we'll likely fact should equate to the stark realization that there's no time to delay. We all need to keep God in our lives and businesses now, even more so in the future.
Here's an interesting stat: Before the mess began, a survey of business owners revealed that 65% of U.S. business owners were planning to retire within the next 5 years. 65%! That's a distinct majority.
A certain percent of these were planning to sell their businesses. What's happening now is this: The value they thought their business had before has likely been significantly affected by the economic disaster that started in March. Increased revenue could mean higher valuations. Decreased, the opposite. But what's happened so far can't be assumed to continue into the future. "Uncertainty" will be the operative term here.
Of course, business owners aren't the only ones facing uncertainty. If small businesses are dancing on their toes, what about their employees? Remember that most employees in our country work for small businesses. Some have had their jobs saved by the government's program to help small businesses meet payroll (the "PPP" program). Unfortunately, many businesses who need help have not been able to access those funds. But even those businesses that could access these funds now face the future, where these measures serve only as short-term fixes.
A lot depends on how the economy responds to the ending of draconian lockdowns. Some predict a quick recovery - known as a "V-shaped" recovery. Others are not so sure about this. One thing we all should keep in mind: The economy was already showing signs of wear before anyone heard of COVID. (How quickly we forget!) Common sense tells us that if the economy was already weakening, the sledgehammer lock-down due to COVID would, if anything, add significant bulk to whatever was already weighing on the U.S. (and most of the rest of word's) economy.
While you're free to hope for and root for a V-shaped recovery, it makes a lot of sense to consider two other alternatives. First, imagine a longer, even sluggish recovery. The timing here is open-ended: a year or so? I've heard as much as a decade - or more. Second, imagine things getting worse. Yeah, it's not pleasant. But it's not outside the realm of the possible.
And if you tend to think that the second alternative is remote, or simply don't want to engage in "negative thinking," just remember that a second wave of COVID shouldn't be dismissed. Some already think this likely. Others, even if they don't dismiss the likelihood of some sort of Phase 2 of COVID, assume the government would never, ever shut down the economy again, as it did this past March. Without taking sides here, I wouldn't completely ignore the possibility of a second shut-down. Yeah, it seems impossible now. But if the virus mutates - as such viruses do - to a more virulent form, we may face scenarios where governments will have to react to the sort of situation faced in the Spanish Flu Pandemic of the 1920s. Then the second wave was the really lethal one. And even if we don't have anything approaching the numbers of deaths wrought by the Spanish Flu, what will the government do if illnesses and deaths spike far beyond what we've already faced?
I don't have answers; I am simply asking the question. And I suggest you consider the possibility.
Why bring this up now? Things are loosening up. Despite reports of spikes in COVID cases in some parts of the country and the world, no one's taking these as a threat to everyone. Fair enough. But a significant second wave will threaten everyone.
Thinking a vaccine will save the day? Maybe. But a second wave of COVID would likely commence before any vaccine is available - unless we have either a virtually miraculous discovery or a vaccine is "rushed" through the usual testing phases - not a prospect I'd look forward to.
And let's not forget another possibility: no vaccine. Remember Aids? There was never a vaccine developed for Aids. And, if you remember, Aids was considered a potentially mortal threat to the entire world. So serious was this possibility considered, that Life insurance companies were in the process of changing their mortality assumptions - a radical measure that could only be driven by a sincere belief that deaths from Aids would eventually affect the general population and number in the millions. So what happened that stemmed the threat? A treatment was developed. And it proved effective. But it took some years to develop an effective treatment.
So an echo of our last post: Where is God in all this for you? Are you praying more? Doing all you can to increase in holiness and grow closer to God (both go hand in hand)?
Last time my questions spurred a troubled response - from me. I realized my time with God had not increased as I faced the special challenges our C-Virus world has presented to my family and my business. I'm working on that now. But if the future brings the sorts of uncertainty and potential threats we've just discussed, that should serve as a booster to my current efforts.
What about you? Need more time with God now? Get on it. In light of what could be coming down the pike, get on it now. Develop the discipline (see last week's posts) you need to get God into the daily mix of your life. And then kick that up several notches.
While it's always been the case. the challenges we're facing and those we'll likely fact should equate to the stark realization that there's no time to delay. We all need to keep God in our lives and businesses now, even more so in the future.
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