Is the Recession Really Over?
The recession ended in June of 2009. That's what I heard. Still, we're in tough times. So what does this "end" of the recession really mean to us Catholic men at work?
The way this works is that an organization called the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) decides when recessions start and when they end. You can read their announcement here.
My first reaction was "Who Cares?". Lots of folks are still out of work. The housing crisis continues. Most people I know are anxious about keeping their job. Well, I'm sure you know what's been going on.
But the NBER felt it was time to announce the end of the recession anyway. So why did it take so long for them to announce? After, we're not talking June 2010; we're talking June 2009. That's 15 months ago.
What they do is they measure a recession from "peak to trough." And the peak month before June 2009 was December 2007 - the month what the recession began.
If you do decide to read the NBER announcement you'll see their reasons for taking so long to announce either the beginning or the end of a recession. It all kind of makes sense. The statistics they use only come out quarterly - plus they're subject to subsequent revision. So they want to be sure before they say anything.
You'll also see that they hedge their announcement by saying that the announcement isn't saying things are going all that well now. All they're saying is the declining economic activity that started in December 2007 turned around in June 2009. Economic activity started turning up in June 2009.
So, according to all these definitions, an economic expansion started right after June 2009.
Now, economic activity doesn't have to be all that great to signal the beginning of an expansion. It just has to not be going down.
But they hedge their bets even more.
First, they explain that economic activity can stay pretty weak for a long time (they don't say how long: months? years?) when a recession ends and an expansion begins. Second, they point out that just because they're saying that the recession ended, they're not ruling out another recession taking place - even in the short-term.
But the thing is, whatever is really happening out there, we Catholic men at work continue our daily lives with the same purpose and focus.
If we're still working, even in the midst of whatever anxiety we might feel, we sanctify our work, we work for the greater glory of God.
If you're out of a job, your efforts at finding work are your new job. Again, sanctify your work; offer your efforts up for the greater glory of God.
If you're in some financial trouble because of our tough times, your task becomes harder. It's difficult to overcome your anxiety - maybe even fear. But try to make every effort to trust in God - even when it seems He's not helping you out as fast as you want.
And while we continue our work, whatever it might be, let's all remember each other. Let's remember that some of us are doing better than others; that some of us might be filled with anxiety (even though we know we should trust in God and leave it at that); that some of us are frustrated in looking for work and feeling that the economy, or the government, or the system, or whatever, is just not fair.
The point is, we Catholic men are all in this together. And in our solidarity, let's pray for each other, that we continue to live and work in the light of eternity, for the greater glory of God, in even in the midst of these difficult times.
The way this works is that an organization called the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) decides when recessions start and when they end. You can read their announcement here.
My first reaction was "Who Cares?". Lots of folks are still out of work. The housing crisis continues. Most people I know are anxious about keeping their job. Well, I'm sure you know what's been going on.
But the NBER felt it was time to announce the end of the recession anyway. So why did it take so long for them to announce? After, we're not talking June 2010; we're talking June 2009. That's 15 months ago.
What they do is they measure a recession from "peak to trough." And the peak month before June 2009 was December 2007 - the month what the recession began.
If you do decide to read the NBER announcement you'll see their reasons for taking so long to announce either the beginning or the end of a recession. It all kind of makes sense. The statistics they use only come out quarterly - plus they're subject to subsequent revision. So they want to be sure before they say anything.
You'll also see that they hedge their announcement by saying that the announcement isn't saying things are going all that well now. All they're saying is the declining economic activity that started in December 2007 turned around in June 2009. Economic activity started turning up in June 2009.
So, according to all these definitions, an economic expansion started right after June 2009.
Now, economic activity doesn't have to be all that great to signal the beginning of an expansion. It just has to not be going down.
But they hedge their bets even more.
First, they explain that economic activity can stay pretty weak for a long time (they don't say how long: months? years?) when a recession ends and an expansion begins. Second, they point out that just because they're saying that the recession ended, they're not ruling out another recession taking place - even in the short-term.
But the thing is, whatever is really happening out there, we Catholic men at work continue our daily lives with the same purpose and focus.
If we're still working, even in the midst of whatever anxiety we might feel, we sanctify our work, we work for the greater glory of God.
If you're out of a job, your efforts at finding work are your new job. Again, sanctify your work; offer your efforts up for the greater glory of God.
If you're in some financial trouble because of our tough times, your task becomes harder. It's difficult to overcome your anxiety - maybe even fear. But try to make every effort to trust in God - even when it seems He's not helping you out as fast as you want.
And while we continue our work, whatever it might be, let's all remember each other. Let's remember that some of us are doing better than others; that some of us might be filled with anxiety (even though we know we should trust in God and leave it at that); that some of us are frustrated in looking for work and feeling that the economy, or the government, or the system, or whatever, is just not fair.
The point is, we Catholic men are all in this together. And in our solidarity, let's pray for each other, that we continue to live and work in the light of eternity, for the greater glory of God, in even in the midst of these difficult times.
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